UK vacancies at 691,000, lowest outside the pandemic since 2014
ONS data shows UK vacancies fell 21,000 to 691,000 in July to September 2026, the lowest outside the pandemic since 2014, as small firms hold back hiring. The Budget added a 3.9% minimum wage rise for April 2027.
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The Office for National Statistics published its October labour market release on 20 October, covering June to August 2026. Vacancies fell by 21,000, or 2.9%, to 691,000 in July to September. Outside the pandemic period, the last time vacancies were this low was July to September 2014, when there were 686,000. On the year, vacancies are down 37,000, or 5.1%.
The rest of the picture is mixed rather than gloomy. The unemployment rate fell to 4.7%, the employment rate for 16 to 64-year-olds rose to 75.3%, and economic inactivity fell to 20.9%. But PAYE data tells a different story: it shows a fall of 92,000 payrolled employees, while the survey-based Labour Force Survey points the other way. The ONS itself cautions that the survey estimates should be read alongside payroll and workforce jobs data, which is why the overall picture looks flat rather than clearly up or down.
Small firms are holding back
The ONS said its Vacancy Survey continues to point to smaller firms not recruiting because of increased labour costs. This is the second consecutive quarterly fall of 21,000 vacancies, and the survey feedback suggests the drop is concentrated among small businesses rather than large employers. For jobseekers, that means fewer openings in exactly the segment that accounts for most UK employers.
The hiring slowdown also lands in the weeks when most firms set their 2027 headcount, which made the Autumn Budget on 28 October unusually relevant to recruitment plans.
Pay growth at its weakest in nearly six years
Annual growth in total pay, including bonuses, slowed to 3.7% in June to August 2026, the lowest since August to October 2020. Regular pay growth excluding bonuses also stood at 3.7%, roughly stable for the past six three-month periods after a year of slowing. Public sector pay grew 6.3%, affected by the timing of pay awards, against 3.0% in the private sector. In real terms, adjusted for inflation, regular pay rose 0.6% and total pay 0.7%, so wages are edging ahead of prices, but only just.
For people negotiating pay, the practical takeaway is that offers in the private sector are clustering around 3% growth, with the public sector outlier driven by award timing rather than a durable gap.
What the Budget changes
The Autumn Budget confirmed the National Living Wage will rise 3.9% to £13.21 an hour from 1 April 2027, with the 18 to 20 rate rising to £11.27. The Government says the increases should benefit around 2.3 million workers. Headline tax rates were left alone: no rise in Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance, with employer Class 1 NI staying at 15% on earnings above the secondary threshold and the Employment Allowance unchanged at £10,500.
For employers, the cost of hiring at the bottom of the pay scale rises again in April, while the vacancy data suggests demand for new hires is already soft. The combination is likely to keep small firms cautious into the new tax year.
What to watch next
The ONS publishes its November labour market release on 17 November 2026, which will show whether the vacancy slide continued into October. Watch the payroll employee series rather than the survey estimates, since the two currently diverge. Employers should build the £13.21 rate into any 2027 budgeting for entry-level and hourly roles now. Jobseekers should expect continued competition for each opening, and can use the low vacancy count as context when weighing counteroffers: a 3% rise in a role you hold may beat a search in a market with 37,000 fewer openings than a year ago.
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